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The Tranche You Can See argued that of the shares coming off the SpaceX lock-up, only the affiliates' tranche would leave a record, making it the one part where "did they sell" has a documented answer. That tranche released on 10 September. The answer turns out to be nothing. SpaceX's filing history on EDGAR holds ten Form 3s, a single Form 4, and no Form 144 at all. That one Form 4 was filed by the founder in the week of the listing and reports a period of 2 February 2026, which makes it the paperwork of going public rather than a record of anyone trading after it. Read that way, the count of post-listing insider transaction reports is not one. It is zero. That covers the 6 August release of up to 911.5 million shares, the 20 August tranche, the 9 September tranche, and the affiliates' own release on 10 September.

Up to 319.0 million SpaceX Class A shares came off the lock-up this morning, 7% of the shares subject to the 180-day agreement. Tomorrow, up to 59.1 million more become eligible. Those two rows sit one day apart in the schedule, and they are not the same kind of event. The first is everybody but the affiliates. The second is the affiliates themselves. That gap is the difference between stock whose sale nobody will ever observe and stock whose sale is filed. Four rows carry the affiliate exclusion, and after the September 10th those rows simply disappear. This piece reads the lock-up table, checking where the word affiliates stops, and why the ninetieth day is not the coincidence it looks like.

SpaceX's $100 billion Louisiana spaceport will not be auditable before 2027 and will not produce anything measurable before 2029. Who Counts the Capex asked what happens to a number like that: announced capex commits nothing and leaves no line item if it never arrives. This piece asks what happens to the holders, because the SpaceX share register is turning over on a published schedule long before the announcement can be checked.

SpaceX’s first major post-IPO lock-up release offered a useful test of how these events actually behave. Ahead of the 6 August release, 3 claims were on the table: the conditional 455.8 million-share tranche would remain locked, eligibility to sell would not necessarily mean actual selling, and an expanding free float could create additional passive demand alongside new supply. The conditional tranche did fail its price test, leaving 911.5 million shares eligible for release. SpaceX’s free float then jumped from roughly 4.9% to 11.8%. But instead of collapsing under the new supply, the stock rose 6.1% on release day and closed at $133.11 the following session, up another 15.83%. Two of the 3 predictions held. The third was never actually tested. The bigger lesson is that a lock-up expiry is more complicated than “more shares = more selling.” Eligibility, actual selling, float mechanics, and market demand are separate forces, and the SpaceX release showed why that distinction matters.

Earlier this week, the argument was that SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion failed to lift the stock because the market had already priced it in. The rule change was public, the timing was known, and the passive buying was predictable. The obvious follow-up question is whether the same logic applies to upcoming lock-up expirations. If everyone knows the dates and the number of shares involved, shouldn't those already be priced in too? The answer highlights an important distinction in market structure: must versus may. Index funds must buy. Insiders may sell. That difference explains why some highly anticipated events disappear into the price, while others continue to move markets.

Nasdaq's new fast-entry rule, which went live on May 1, significantly alters the timeline for very large IPOs. A newly listed company can now join the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days if its market cap ranks within the top 40 existing constituents, eliminating the previous waiting period. This change has immediate implications for SpaceX. The anticipated IPO timeline suggests a public S-1 filing in the second half of May, followed by a roadshow starting in early June and a listing later that month. With a standard 180-day lock-up period expiring in the second half of December, SpaceX, valued between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, is likely to qualify for fast entry as soon as it becomes eligible. This adjustment creates a new dynamic for how the stock price may develop.